Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Can a Wedge Be Driven Into the Republican Base?

Randy Newman figured what really makes conservatives tick fifty years ago

Today I saw some interesting polling numbers that showed that lower-income Republicans were in favor of Biden's 1.9 trillion economic recovery bill, while middle and upper-income Republicans were opposed. (Democrats are highly in favor across income levels.) These numbers piqued my interest because I have long thought of the Republican base as being far more solid than that of the Democratic Party. The Democrats have tended to be a fractious coalition whereas the Republicans have coalesced around a common ideology.

One very important ideological element has been trickle-down economics. By sponsoring massive relief and spending last year, Trump and the Republicans were flouting their party's "fiscal responsibility" narrative even more so than usual. Many of their voters who got tangible help from that relief seem willing to break from the party line on trickle down. As we have seen, Republicans will let the money taps run when they are in office, so it's hard to drive a wedge on this issue in those times. However, with Republican politicians shifting gears back to austerity an opportunity may present itself.

At the same time, I wonder if the Republican Party's defense against this attack is still impregnable. What lashes their party together is not the ideas of Hayek and Friedman but resentment. Everyone in their group from the Bible thumpers to libertine libertarians is united in their hatred of liberals. This is why the Dr Seuss bullshit is so effective. Conservatives go around every day thinking that liberals are out to corrupt society and dominate them. They'd literally rather die than do something a liberal wants, just look at the anti-mask stuff. 

It's hard to draw people from a political faction that seems more like a cult. Even harder when challenging a white nationalist framing that so many on the Right embrace, and which can override other concerns among working class white people.

Seen from this perspective, a difference of opinion about the role of government in helping its people is actually pretty ancillary to the conservative cause. The more respectable members of the movement have been allowed for decades to put on their bow ties and go on television and act like they are some association of principled thinkers. In reality the Birchers completed the Long March and contrary William F Buckley's narrative, ended up victorious in the end. 

This is another way for me to say while I am surprised to see a potential wedge in the Republican Party, I doubt much can be done with it.

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