Saturday, November 3, 2012

Fun and Games With Election Predictions

There's a fun little game on the BBC's website where you can predict which swing states will go where in the election, and what the electoral vote totals will be.  My total ended up being 281 for Obama, and 257 for Romney.  Here are how I called the "swing states" according to the BBC, and some commentary.  What are your predictions?

Nevada: Obama
The Obama campaign's ground game is well-developed here.

New Mexico: Obama
Not even sure why this is a "swing state."

Colorado: Romney
I agonized over this one, but I really do think that some potential Obama voters will go over to the Libertarians on the weed issue in a state that has a big Republican base.

Iowa: Obama
He's got a special relationship with this state, and I think the Midwest is becoming a Democratic stronghold.

Wisconsin: Obama
This is embarrassing for Paul Ryan.

Michigan: Obama
After the auto bailout, this will be a cinch.

Pennsylvania: Obama
The polling has been very pro-Obama, although with power outages turnout might go down, helping Romney.

New Hampshire: Obama
I just don't believe the hype on Mitt peeling this one away.

Virginia: Romney
This is a state in the balance, but in my experience traveling through it, the rural regions are scarily reactionary and motivated.  I never saw more anti-Obama bumper stickers than I did in the rural portions of that state.  With whiteness such a key motivator in this election, I don't see any state in the former Confederacy going for Obama.

North Carolina: Romney

Florida: Romney
Obama might have a chance here, but it looks like all those who would like to vote for him stand a good chance of waiting in line for hours or having their votes invalidated.

Ohio: Obama
This will be the deciding state (yet again.)  While I am worried about shenanigans, Obama seems to have enough of a lead that rigged machines and long lines won't be able to swing the election to the other side.  I only hope I'm right.


Brian I said...

For the most part I agree, although I think there's a good chance that VA will go Obama. Also, with similar picks to yours I somehow I came up with a 294-244 margin. Good thing I teach history, not math.

Matt J. said...

I had 290-248. Colorado was my main difference. Either way, Romney may need to say something at some point.