A House Divided (An Inauguration Eve Thought)

As I have mentioned on this blog my theory that the past twenty years or so have been a low-grade political civil war in this country. What we think of as the "red-blue" divide is actually an irrepressible conflict between two radically opposed visions of the nation. At a similar point in the 1850s, Abraham Lincoln declared that "a house divided against itself cannot stand." People often forget the accompanying line that "it will become all one thing or all the other." The union would endure, either as one with slavery throughout, or one where slavery was gone throughout.

The agenda of the Republicans, Trump, and his cabinet is plain to see. They want to make the country all one thing in their image. The low grade civil war will end when there is no more "red" or "blue" America because one vision has finally and definitively triumphed over the other.

We will either live in a country where health care is purely a commodity or where all have a right to it.

We will either live in a country where gay people are second class citizens or where they are free and equal members of society.

We will either live in a country where the votes of black people and others are suppressed or where they are encouraged.

We will either live in a country where the federal government plays no role in enforcing civil rights or a country where it does so vigorously.

We will either live in a country where women have no right or access to an abortion or a country where they do.

We will either live in a country where college education is increasingly unaffordable or a country where access to college for all is guaranteed.

We will either live in a country where climate science is rejected or one where it is acted upon.

We will either live in a country where immigrants are attacked and deported or one where they are protected and welcomed.

We will either live in a country where women are pushed into traditional roles or a country where they are given the support to flourish on their own terms.

We will either live in a country where schools are privatized or one with a robust public education system.

We will either live in a country that is white supremacist or one that provides equal rights and economic opportunity to all.

It will become all one thing or all the other. The right-wingers have decided to make their play to mold the country in their image. We must stop them, or lose having a country where any of the things we value and cherish matter anymore. The price of not fighting and fighting like hell as we are cast into the fire tomorrow is too high to pay.

A Forecast For 2017

I've had a history on this blog of making useless predictions, which I am going to put to rest. Too many pundits are flooding the public sphere with asinine prognostication, so there's no need for my own entry. No, I would like, in a term borrowed from a Tom Waits song, to give an emotional weather report and forecast for the upcoming year.

My fears from this summer have proven correct: we are witnessing a major change in the historical weather. To mix my metaphors, the tectonic plates are shifting, the earth is shaking, and edifices are crumbling to the ground. I simply cannot predict exactly what is going to come next, but I can only tell you that it will be bad. There are dark storm clouds on the horizon, I just don't know how bad.

As near as I can tell the political opposition will have little power to stop Trump and his agenda. The Democrats are a minority in both houses of Congresses, were blocked from swinging the Supreme Court, and are fighting an opponent more than happy to eradicate obstacles to power, democracy be damned. Just look at voter suppression, the coup in North Carolina, and the aforementioned blocking of Merrick Garland's nomination. The political left remains divided, still fighting each other over the last election rather than banding together to face the common enemy. The radical left's membership is practically non-existent outside of college campuses while the mainstream Democratic party seems incapable of rallying its base. If the Democrats try to filibuster in the Senate, I get the feeling that the filibuster will be suspended by Senate Republicans, which would fit their MO.

At the very least the social safety net will be shredded even more, and the wealthy will get even more money due to ending the inheritance tax and lowering their income tax burden. Millions will lose health insurance. Paul Ryan has been jizzing himself since November 8 at the thought of starving your grandmother, and he will get his wish.

This alone is the best case scenario. In terms of foreign policy, where the president has a lot of free reign, things could get really crazy. Trump effectively wants an alliance with Putin, and NATO may soon go the way of the dodo. Putin may well invade the Baltic states. US warplanes may soon be dropping bombs on the Syrian opposition in order to maintain the Assad regime. A trade war with China could be in the offing. At home a Jeff Sessions-run Justice Department will give racist cops even freer reign to kill. A Betsy DeVos Department of Education may permanently paralyze public education. Trump will likely use his position to enrich himself, his cronies, and his awful children.

One of the worst things about this is the unpredictability of the situation. We are in uncharted waters and are going to stay there. There is going to be no going back. I cannot predict what will happen, but I do know that the next year will be unprecedented.

I've read two moving books this year by people caught up in historical change, One was Vera Brittain's Testament of Youth, detailing her early life, especially her years as a nurse in World War I. This book is a reminder that our whole world can change overnight in ways that we could never expect, and that larger historical changes, like the universe itself, are indifferent to our fate. I got a similar feeling reading Victor Klemperer's diary of life under Nazism. That book has shaken me because Klemperer and his friends initially thought that there was no way that Hitler would maintain power, that the army would step in, that his own cronies would have him done away with. I am convinced, more than ever, that all good people who oppose the incoming autocrat need to be prepared to fight to the last breath if we are going to have any chance of maintaining democracy. Anything short of that will not be enough. And so for the next year my only resolution is to put my shoulder to the wheel.

Fun and Games With Election Predictions

There's a fun little game on the BBC's website where you can predict which swing states will go where in the election, and what the electoral vote totals will be.  My total ended up being 281 for Obama, and 257 for Romney.  Here are how I called the "swing states" according to the BBC, and some commentary.  What are your predictions?

Nevada: Obama
The Obama campaign's ground game is well-developed here.

New Mexico: Obama
Not even sure why this is a "swing state."

Colorado: Romney
I agonized over this one, but I really do think that some potential Obama voters will go over to the Libertarians on the weed issue in a state that has a big Republican base.

Iowa: Obama
He's got a special relationship with this state, and I think the Midwest is becoming a Democratic stronghold.

Wisconsin: Obama
This is embarrassing for Paul Ryan.

Michigan: Obama
After the auto bailout, this will be a cinch.

Pennsylvania: Obama
The polling has been very pro-Obama, although with power outages turnout might go down, helping Romney.

New Hampshire: Obama
I just don't believe the hype on Mitt peeling this one away.

Virginia: Romney
This is a state in the balance, but in my experience traveling through it, the rural regions are scarily reactionary and motivated.  I never saw more anti-Obama bumper stickers than I did in the rural portions of that state.  With whiteness such a key motivator in this election, I don't see any state in the former Confederacy going for Obama.

North Carolina: Romney
Ditto

Florida: Romney
Obama might have a chance here, but it looks like all those who would like to vote for him stand a good chance of waiting in line for hours or having their votes invalidated.

Ohio: Obama
This will be the deciding state (yet again.)  While I am worried about shenanigans, Obama seems to have enough of a lead that rigged machines and long lines won't be able to swing the election to the other side.  I only hope I'm right.