It is easy to forget that at one time Donald Trump was seen as apart from the Republican Party. Back during the 2016 primaries he was treated by prominent Republicans as a kind of cuckoo bird, invading the nest of the Grand Old Party. Before Ted Cruz became a servile Trumper, he tried to organize resistance to him at the 2016 convention.
That convention was when Trump and the Republicans signed a blood oath. He would deliver on their policies and use his populist mob to get power, they would turn the other way when confronted with his corruption. That blood pact was confirmed when Trump and the last Republican Congress managed to put through massive tax cuts on corporations and wealthy. It has been furthered by Trump's judicial nominations.
Republicans have paid him back by backing him on everything. Putting children in cages, colluding with Russia, trying to buy Greenland, taking government money at his private properties, and all kinds of other misbehavior has been endorsed by prominent Republicans. Those who once criticized him, like Romney, Sasse, Cruz, Rubio, and Graham have become loyalists.
This week's revelations, however, seem to be some kind of break. The conversation with Ukraine's president cannot be waved away with plausible deniability. Direct evidence of Trump's misbehavior is staring the world right in the face. It's telling that many Republicans have been more lukewarm and evasive on this affair than in other scandals.
For the first time since 2016 I wonder if the blood pact will be broken. I have a feeling that the cracks in the facade will soon be fixed. While I bet many Republican politicians really don't like Trump, they are also afraid of their base, who is still behind him. And as long as Trump keeps up his end of the deal, it would be dangerous to replace him.
I do, however, see a small chance that they will dump Trump. Why? Because being distracted by impeachment will hurt his ability to stay focused on altering the federal bench, the big long term goal of Senate Republicans. If it looks like the Republican candidate will lose in 2020 no matter what, they might as well get Pence in these and keep nominating judges. That will also keep their base happy.
I still don't really see this scenario happening, though. The Republican leadership knows their ideas are unpopular, and that they need Trump as their front man. I can only hope that if he goes down, the rest of the rotten gang will go down with him.
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